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In the Bartlett method, the forecast for the next period is calculated as a weighted average of the most recent actual value and the previous forecast, as shown in the following formula: Second, weather radar is not infallible. The radar beam can be affected by various factors, such as buildings, terrain, and precipitation intensity, which can cause errors in the data. Additionally, radar data may not always accurately reflect the actual conditions on the ground, especially in areas with complex terrain or heavy precipitation.